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A Trading Tip To Improve Your Results

Posted April 11th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

If You're New Here, Welcome! Learn One Of Our Techniques. Find Support And Resistance Zones In Advance. Knowledge Is Power And Money! Details Here.


Trading Tip
Creative Commons License photo credit: ilamont.com

This trading tip can make a huge difference to your trading account.  It’s simple to implement, but it does take a few minutes of research.

Invest in the best performing sectors and short, or avoid, the worst performing sectors.

There have been countless investigations that prove this strategy beats most other options.  In fact, an Standard and Poors study from earlier this year revealed the validity of this claim after a 40 year investigation.  In essence, their findings showed that buying the prior year’s top performing sectors beat the S&P 500 index by a nifty 70%.  Compare that to only a 40% win rate for purchasing the bottom sectors.

Here’s how to implement this trading tip on a shorter time frame: scan a list of sectors on a monthly basis and rank them against the return of the S&P for the same period.

From the top 3 sectors that outperformed the S&P find those stocks that beat their sector.  Make a list of those strong stocks.  Wait for a pullback and then evaluate an entry point.  Calculate where to place a stop and then wait for the entry price to trigger.

By concentrating trades in the stocks from outperforming sectors there is a good chance it will become a profitable trade.

This is one trading tip that has some impressive, supporting statistics.

 

 

 

 

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How To Incorporate S & R In A Trading System

Posted March 6th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

One component of a robust trading system is knowing how to find support and resistance levels.

Both levels are barriers.  Knowing where those barriers reside can save lots of frustration.  For example, it wouldn’t be wise to buy near strong resistance and sell near solid support.

It’s not that difficult to find support and resistance zones.  Study a weekly chart and draw in lines that corresponds to levels where price made little forward or backward progress.

This weekly chart has horizontal lines at areas of resistance.  Price touched these areas and then retreated.

Here’s a technique that helps develop a robust support/resistance trading system.  Find support and resistance zones on multiple time frames.

Here’s a daily look at the above chart.

The next task is to draw the support and resistance levels on the daily chart.  Draw them in a different color.

This is a daily chart with resistance lines drawn in pink.

The benefit of a chart like this is that it represents a multi-time frame look at areas of strong resistance.  As price approaches the long-term weekly lines it is approaching a very strong resistance area.  It may not be wise to initiate  a long trade near this area.  Conversely, if price falls back to a white line it may be a solid area of support and a great zone in which to place a trade.

If this method resonates with your trading style, don’t forget to draw support lines on both time frames.

This technique is valuable for intraday trading, too.  The rule of thumb is this — move up one level and draw the support and resistance lines.  For example, if trading from a 30 minute chart first draw the lines on an hourly chart.

There’s a complete trading system devoted to this strategy, HERE. I recommend it because I wrote it ; )

Another method to quickly find zones of support and resistance is to look at a Heikin Ashi chart.  Heikin Ashi graphs are special candlestick charts.  The candlesticks are clustered in the same color until the trend changes.

Here’s a weekly look at the Heikin Ashi chart for ILMN, the same chart as above –

And the corresponding daily chart –

Trading System

Finding support and resistance is one of the oldest techniques of technical analysis.  This deceptively simple technique is still widely practiced by those traders that realize the value of interpreting price action and incorporating it into their trading system.

 

Volatility Is A Good Thing

Posted February 20th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

Volatility can be an important part of a trading system.

So that we’re all on the same wavelength I’m talking about the kind of volatility that measures the deviation from an average price.  It’s sometimes called statistical volatility.

I’ve never heard anyone say they hoped to buy a stock or ETF and have it flat line at the purchase price.

Volatility can help you find stocks that move.

One measure of volatility that uncovers stocks with some get up and go is historical volatility(HV).  There are two popular calculations: HV 50 and 6/100 HV.  HV 50 is the volatility reading of a particular security over the past 50 days.  6/100 HV is a ratio of the 6 period and 100 period HV.

My basic stock screen incorporates the HV 50.  I build a watch list based on price, volume, and those stocks trading at or above a HV of 40.

The 6/100 HV is best used as a filter in a trading system.  Track stocks with a low 6/100 HV , ideally below 50.  Those stocks should be closely watched for potential trades because a sharp move could come at any time.

One of the best trading systems of recent times uses volatility.  I posted about it HERE.

These are a few screen shots of stocks that exhibited low volatility prior to their breakout.  Watch for the green arrow on the charts that mark the buy signal — go long above that bar’s high.

Volatility

Volatility will not tell the direction of the move, only that a sharp move may be imminent.

Once you incorporate volatility, either the HV 50, 6/100 HV, or both, I think you’ll find that your watch list contains more “active” stocks!

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What’s Your Investment Style?

Posted February 9th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

Asset Allocation on Wikibook

Image via Wikipedia

There are generally two types of investment styles: strategic and tactical.

Strategic allocation is usually a buy-and-hold strategy.

The initial asset mix is developed after establishing the investor’s goals for growth, capital preservation, income, etc.  Once in place, the portfolio’s values will “drift” within the initially established mix.  That means the growth portion may be making great gains while the income assets are declining in value.

Re balancing is part of a strategically allocated portfolio.  There are a couple ways to re-balance.  For example, one technique is to purchase more of the declining asset class.  In the example from above that would mean adding more to the income positions.

A second way is to reconfigure the portfolio is to liquidate a portion of the assets.  This normally occurs when an investment class moves a certain percentage above its original value.  For example, if the growth portion of the portfolio was 8% above its original value a portion of the growth assets would be sold.  There is no “carved-in-stone” rule on the percentage, but it is usually predetermined at the portfolio’s inception.

Tactical allocation is less rigid and has no fixed time period as the buy-and-hold strategic investing model.  The tactical model is more for opportunists looking for a chance to capitalize on an unusual occurrence.  For example, if the semiconductor space was making fresh highs a tactical investor would want to invest in that space.

The tactical approach is more active and has a market-timing component.  It also requires restraint and discipline.  The strategy requires monitoring the market for opportunities.  Once those investment opportunities are showing signs that they’ve “run their course”, the investor must have the discipline to move on to the next promising area.

My style of investing is tactical.  I don’t want to buy and hold, hope and wish, or watch my capital decline for the sake of a balanced asset mix.  I want to buy the leading stocks in the best performing sectors.

One of the tools that lets me recognize opportunities is TeleChart.  Here’s how I do it –

Under the WatchList tab is the Custom Date Sort.  I click on Custom Date Sort and draw a beginning an ending date on one of the major averages.

Once “Ok” is clicked on the Custom Date Sort window, TeleChart automatically recalculates the data for my time period.

To see which areas of the market have outperformed the S&P all that is left to do click the drop down arrow next to the name of the current scan view.  The current view is called Charts With Notes — the small down arrow opens a bigger window and it’s easy to find the Morningstar groups.  Click on the Morningstar groups link and TeleChart will sort those industry groups by performance for the same time period as the S&P.

This window shows the Industry groups sorted for the selected time period.  I sort from high to low, or low to high.  My objective is to find the best performing sectors because I want to invest in the strongest areas with the strongest stocks from those areas.

Now that I know the top-performing sectors I can find the best performing stocks in each sector.

TeleChart makes tactical investing an easy, quick, and effective investment strategy.

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Success Depends On You And Your Trading System

Posted February 7th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

SUCCESSFULLFAILURE (opening of Dutch Identity at de Paviljoens in Almere)
Creative Commons License photo credit: Paul Keller

Making money in the market means using a sound trading system and having the nerve to stick with it.  Here are a few suggestions:

Know what you want before trying to find a trading system.  Write down your requirements.  Narrow your focus.

For example, how much time can you devote to trading?  Can you handle nightly research of the market and stocks to find new trades?

Find one trading system you understand and become an expert at using it.

A frequent mistake is trying too many systems and not mastering any of them.  Find a system you understand.  Give it at least 6 months.  Paper trade it to build your confidence.

Become an expert.

Consistently fine-tune the knowledge of your trading system.  For example, focus on finding the best stocks to trade.   Or maybe concentrate on making the best entries.  You’ll learn to trust your system or spot the weaknesses that need fixing.

Walk before you run.

Become a master instead of a “pretty good” trader.  Maybe this means you only trade long.  It’s easier to trade long.  I don’t think we’re programmed to wanting a stock to decline in price.  That’s an extra step to learn and accept.

Practice your technique every day and you’ll get better faster.

Before you begin, know that practice will make you better.  Know how much practice time you will have every day to perfect your skills.

You can do it!

I think the biggest decision is knowing what you want from trading.  Maybe you just want to track the overall market, keep track of your current investments,or double-check the validity of a financial adviser’s recommendation.

Knowledge is a good thing.  A little effort devoted to understanding a trading system can bring you peace of mind, confidence, and financial rewards.

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Trend Lines Matter In A Trading System

Posted January 30th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

Personally, every chart I study has a trend line on it.  It’s one of the oldest, but most valid technical tool.  Learn how to draw them correctly and you’ll save yourself lots of headaches.

Trend lines will keep you on the right side of the market.  That can be the difference between making money or losing it.

NASDAQ

DJ-30

Russell 2000

S&P 500

Stock Trading Strategies And Position Sizing

Posted January 12th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

To become a successful trader one needs to be a bit of a market analyst.  It’s important to know where the market has been and where it may be headed.

Support and resistance will give you clues as to where the market is, relative to where it has been.  I’ve devoted an entire website to that topic.

What this has to do with position sizing is this — never, ever, buy size at or near a top.  Sounds pretty obvious, right?  You’d be surprised at the number of traders that get sucked into the enthusiasm, buy a big bunch of whatever only to see it decline when the market rolls.

Turn off the noise and chatter from pundits and TV personalities.  Think logically and react calmly.

Learn to read the market.

Buy size when no one else wants to buy.

How To Create Stock Profits In The New Year

Posted January 7th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

Newton's First and Second laws, in Latin, from...
Image via Wikipedia

Issac Newton discovered a truth that can help you improve your trading.

The First Law of Motion states : a body at rest tends to stay at rest, and a body in motion tends to stay in motion,unless the body is compelled to change its state.

The market confirms that truth.  There is a great deal of market research that confirms stocks that perform the best/worst over a 90 day to 1 year period tend to continue that performance over the next 90 days to 1 year.

Momentum trading has been a successful stock trading strategy for many years, year after year.

A successful momentum trader knows how to find those stocks and exploit them for gains.  It’s called having an edge.  Once you find your edge (you’ll probably have more than one) it will never again be a problem to profit from the market.

Why don’t more traders employ such a strategy?  I think it’s because of the promise of technical indicators that have been sold to the unsuspecting.

To become a successful trader it takes a work, patience, and persistence.

Also, I think too many traders use too short a time frame.  That has likely developed due to the over-hyped mystique of day trading.

And lastly, to be successful, work on finding an edge or two and then stick with it.  Refine and perfect it — give it a good run for at least six months, not six days.

If you’d like more profits from the market, start 2011 looking for consistently winning stocks.  My suggestion would be to find a half dozen consistently strong stocks.  Study them for anomalies and learn how to exploit those quirks to your advantage.  See if what you learn by study the initial six can be used with other momentum stocks.

It’s possible that you will find your edge!

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Low Volume + Flat Base = Potential Pop

Posted January 4th, 2011 by Trading Systems | No Comments

Happy New Year... 1/365 (I hope)
Creative Commons License photo credit: Sean Rogers1

Yesterday’s big jump in price should have been no surprise.  It’s not a guarantee that post-holiday trading will deliver the big gains seen on Monday, but there were clues that it could happen.

When price starts to consolidate and move sideways in an uptrend, watch the volume bars.  A series of decreasing low volume days may be setting up a jump higher.

These are examples from a couple of index charts, the S&P and NASDAQ, but it can occur on stocks charts or ETFs, too.

Don’t make the mistake and try to short these basing patterns in an uptrend.  Instead, watch price and volume as described, and profit from the pop!

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Why I Use These Trading Tools

Posted December 29th, 2010 by Trading Systems | No Comments

There are lots of “snake oil” trading products on the market.  I know most of them, but every now and then a new one erupts on the scene.  If you ever have any questions about a product, drop me an email.  I’ve made it a priority to look at most of them.  And no, I’m not going to name names.

I’m often asked what trading tools I use to build and maintain my trading systems.  You’ll be surprised to know that I use very few.

My core piece of software is TeleChart(TC).  I could do a commercial for TC, but I won’t.

I’ve been a user for many years and I depend on this reliable service.  It allows me to do some very unusual sorts and screens that have made a huge difference in my trading.

If you refresh this page an ad for TC is in the upper right corner.

Yes, I’m a reseller of TC.  If you purchase it they pay me.

The other piece of software I use is AmiBroker (AB).  Unlike TC, this charting package doesn’t have its own data feed, but it reads the TC data and is very easy to configure.

AB lets me write complex formulas with ease.  The scans revealed in my Scanning Manual were created in AB.  The charting capabilities are very flexible, too.  There is a tab system that lets you configure and save different chart set ups that is a real time-saver.  AB also has back-testing capability that is very good, too.

If I could resell AB, I would.

Both TeleChart and AmiBroker have a trial period.  Take them for a test drive if you’re looking for some new software.

I use two different trading platforms: TradeStation and Schwab’s Street Smart Pro.

TradeStation has every sort of operation you’d ever need to place a trade.  Street Smart Pro is not nearly as complex.

That’s it.  That’s all I use.  I prefer to keep costs low and my techniques simple.  Simple has made me money for years — no reason to complicate the process, now!

I made a video a while ago about TC — if you missed it here’s a link:

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